September 2009
Pandemic Influenza Alert
Hung Cheung, MD, MPH, FACOEM
Sherry Sood, MD, MPH
Dr. Cheung/ OEM Advisor, LLC.
(888) 361-8882
panflu@drcheung-oemadvisor.com
We appreciate the feedback and further questions generated from our last publication on the H1N1 virus. This article will update the current case load from H1N1 as well as outline further practical measures that can be implemented to prevent health, home and business related consequences of H1N1 as flu season approaches. Please feel free to call or email us with any questions or forward the attachment to those who may have questions about H1N1. We will monitor the situation and will have periodic updates for you. They will also be posted on our web site under the “In the News” tab. We hope this helps as we strive to be your environmental, occupational and public health resource.
So what is going to happen?
No one has a crystal ball on this one. As noted in the previous update, the scientific community is concerned due to the potential for the virus to mutate, making it more infectious and/ or more lethal. The latest US best guestimate, on which the US President was recently briefed, is as follows:
Since it first emerged in April, the global swine flu epidemic has sickened more than 1 million
Americans and killed about 500. It's also spread around the world, infecting tens of thousands and killing nearly 2,000.
While the precise impact of the fall resurgence of 2009-H1N1 influenza is impossible to predict, a plausible scenario is that the epidemic could:
••produce infection of 30–50% of the U.S. population this fall and winter, with symptoms in approximately 20–40% of the population (60–120 million people), more than half of whom would seek medical attention.
••lead to as many as 1.8 million U.S. hospital admissions during the epidemic, with up to 300,000 patients requiring care in intensive care units (ICUs). Importantly, these very ill patients could occupy 50–100 percent of all ICU beds in affected regions of the country at the peak of the epidemic and could place enormous stress on ICU units, which normally operate close to capacity.
••cause between 30,000 and 90,000 deaths in the United States, concentrated among children and young adults. In contrast, the 30,000–40,000 annual deaths typically associated with seasonal flu in the United States occur mainly among people over 65. As a result, 2009-H1N1 would lead to many more years of life lost.
••pose especially high risks for individuals with certain pre-existing conditions, including pregnant women and patients with neurological disorders or respiratory impairment, diabetes, or severe obesity and possibly for certain populations, such as Native Americans.
Other countries have different estimates. The UK national risk assessment is expecting a scenario that is 3 times worse than the current US estimate.
Disclaimer: Dr. Cheung/ OEM Advisor, LLC. makes every effort to verify the facts, findings and references that are posted, but the accuracy and completeness of the information, and of any statements or opinions based thereon, are not guaranteed. Furthermore, this message is for informational purposes only and may not be appropriate to your individual situation. As the science and knowledge is rapidly evolving, you should monitor the various available resources noted previously to keep you updated. Please contact your occupational medicine or public health professionals to assist with a customized plan for your workplace or your community